ramblin'man wrote:No sympathy here, BE. Seems like you might have forgotten what it means to be a Boston fan? May have gotten a little spoiled over the last several years?
Gee, I'd ask you what it means to be a Philly fan,
RM,
but I don't feel like dodging batteries...
So that was the vaunted Phillies lineup, eh?
Ha. Just kidding.
That series was a complete mirage in every possible way. Almost like both teams got together and decided to mess with everybody. Lackey pitches with no control, Matsusucka listens to the catcher and actually throws pitches in the strike zone, and Wakefield's whiffle-ball pitches shuts down the opposing lineup with nary a 600 foot golf-shot HR to be seen. Meanwhile, the Phillies small-ball Lackey, have no patience at the plate against the most notorious afraid-to-pitch-strikes pitcher in the world, and Halladay is Horrible.
I'll take the 2 wins and hope that the positive results snowball into a competitive series in Tampa that could help salvage the season (don't look now, but the suddenly old and rickety Yankees are only 2.5 games ahead and losing steam...)
But only a fool would think that this series was truly representative of a potential RS-Phils matchup in the postseason. Philadelphia would still be the favorites...unless the Boston starters show far greater consistency over the remainder of the season. I doubt that being confused back-to-back by two unfamiliar gimmick pitchers will dampen the confidence of the Phillies. If anything, they will take out their frustration by putting up double-digits in every game this week against Minaya's Mediocres. They have absolutely no legitimate competition for the NL spot in the WS. When a pathetic Cardinals team that would be 10th best in the AL is the 2nd best team in your league, the Phils losing even a single game en route to the WS would be a huge surprise.
Big question coming up - with Buchholz, Lester and Lackey pitching in Tampa against Who?, Big Gay James, and Garza, can the Sox take 2 of 3 on the road and push the reset button on a season that has been completely depressing so far? If your 3 best pitchers (yes, I left out Beckett intentionally) can't get it done now, when can they get it done?
I still don't think Boston can get past Tampa in an ALCS the way the two teams are playing now. BUT it is still pretty early, the pitching staff has a LOT of room for improvement while the entire Tampa team is playing almost as good as they possibly can (with the exception of a lack of power at the plate), which simply can not last for 5 more months without
some hiccups or injuries along the way. AND the Spankees have suddenly opened the door a crack and given the Sox a sniff at the WC slot.
We will see in the next 3 days whether Boston has enough guts to stick their foot in the door, or whether this will be an old-school, traditional wait-til-next-year Red Sox season... On paper the Sox are a decent match-up with Tampa, but as with all sports, confidence makes all the difference (see Jim Courier's historically inexplicable 2-year run as tennis' #1 ranked player, where cheating to win the French Open against AA propelled him to thinking he was good and it subsequently taking 2 years for everyone - including himself - to remember, oh yeah, he really wasn't). The Rays are both good AND rolling with tons of confidence right now, while the Red Sox have been devoid of any confidence whatsoever all year long. Media pressure has been intense at pre-2004 levels since before Spring Training, with the extremely unpopular pitching-and-defense/inability-to-sign-big-hitters-away-from-the-NYY "plan" having drained the fanbase of all remaining goodwill from the '04 and '07 championships.
IF the pitching is solid, and IF Papi continues to stay hot in a "professional baseball stadium" (The Trap) he has owned, and IF Boston takes this series in Tampa, then the entire landscape shifts and the RS become a legitimate contender again. If the Rays hammer them (again) and the pitching is as poor as it has been through 95% of the games so far, then Boston is cooked and the rebuilding starts before the All-Star Break. Papi and Lowell both get moved, with Lars Andersen called up for the rest of the year to determine if he has any shot of living up to his potential at the ML level. Pitching-wise, Wakefield will be back in the rotation and will pitch on short rest to try and get him closer to the RS win record. Lester and Beckett will be kept fresh for 2011 by pitching only 5 innings/90 pitches at most, with the arms in the pen they have no plans to keep getting worked into the ground instead. Buchholz & Lackey will pitch normally to complete their transitions to Boston's rotation, Suck-K will be traded at the deadline to a NL team (probably the Phillies) where he will thrive, Bowden will be showcased for the rest of the year for a trade, and Kelly will get spot duty against weaker lineups at first and then a few late starts against TAM/NYY to prepare him for next year.
Your 2011 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Youkilis 3B
Gonzalez 1B - offseason trade unless SD tanks earlier than expected
Drew RF - Theo refuses to admit mistake, still a decent lefty power threat
Beltre 3B
Cameron - L F (why is L-F censored???)
Iglesias SS
Varitek C
Berkman - trade from Houston
Laird - FA signing
Byrnes - FA signing
Andersen**
Lester
Buchholz
Lackey
Beckett
Kelly
Tazawa
Wakefield
Bard
Balfour - FA signing
requisite over-the-hill lefty junk pitcher
**
Andersen will be up and down from AAA for ABs when a 6th reliever is not needed throughout the season. Westmoreland will also get some ABs as a late-season call-up - regardless of how well he hits - as the team supports him in his recovery and makes a conscious effort to recapture the family atmosphere and good chemistry that broke The Curse a few years back, before the egos of aging sluggers turned things sour again.
Wake will make the 6th reliever unnecessary much of the time because he will eat a lot of innings out of the pen as they try to get him the last few wins he needs to erase Clemens from the RS record-book (which sadly will also remove Cy Young from one of his long-time spots as well). He will also be more effective out the pen next season when (a) the other junk pitchers (Okajima and No Dice) are gone and the contrast between his pitches and those of the pitchers he is replacing increases, and (b) when he finally accepts that he has no business starting over any of the 5 starters and commits to his important role in his last season in Boston before he either retires or decides to pitch a few more years in the NL to build up his win total and make a solid case for the HOF, which he would not get the opportunity to do in Boston. The fans would completely support him and cheer him like crazy at every opportunity because he has been the most loyal and honorable RS player since Teddy Ballgame. If he were to pitch 6 more years (completely possible for a knuckleballer) and average 10 wins each year in the pathetic-except-for-PHI NL he would be over 250 wins and have such a unique resume for his era that he would be a shoo-in for the HOF. IMHO, even though I have argued for several years that he should no longer be in the rotation in Boston.
OK (deep breath). Far, far more RS analysis and prognostication than anyone at a sex web site ever was interested in, but the decent pitching at the back end of the rotation over the weekend (albeit against a lineup that has not seen those 2 pitchers at all) and the better-than-expected hitting so far (with Papi warming up a month sooner than in 2009) has given the 2010 RS a breath of life and options in 2011. Whether it is too late or not for this year remains to be seen, although I suspect that the front office would actually love to start preparing for 2011 a.s.a.p. since they have a great shot at being the heavy favorites to win it all next year.
They will have a potentially historically great rotation: Lester will be in the prime of a HOF career - already the winningest pitcher ever after 100 starts; Buchholz will have matured another year and will have a 15+ win ML season under his belt; Lackey will be fully adjusted to East Coast baseball intensity; a rested and healthy Josh Freaking Beckett will be the !!
4th!! starter; another potential future ace in Kelly will be the 5th starter. And they ALL will be back to pitching 130 games to the best game-calling catcher in MLB history (a bloop-single this week and a Schilling shake-off a few years back away from catching 2 more no-hitters than any other catcher ever, all from different pitchers). They will have a very solid lineup with the addition of Gonzalez, the subtraction of a lot of drama, and some very solid bats off the bench that can help overcome the mild weakness of the bottom of the lineup in the late innings.
The Yankees will be taking a BIG step back next year as they have to either get
much younger OR risk importing another handful of overpriced but established players from other markets..most of whom will wilt on the big stage as the majority typically do in both Boston and NY. My guess is that they have learned enough from Boston and Tampa in the 2000's that they will finally be content to allow their young players to grow into the spotlight, which they have not done since the mid-90's. They are still in the afterglow period, and the fans will accept a year of being non-contenders in exchange for another solid 5-year window of championship contention (to match 1996-2000) from 2012-2016.
The Rays on the other hand have no fans, but do have a lot of contracts up that they can not afford to renew. So 2010 is their closing window and they will not be a force in 2011. They may not even be in Tampa anymore in 2011...although that would be an actual smart business decision on the part of Bud Selig...and one that would also represent him admitting a mistake. And that, as we all know, would be completely and shockingly out of character for him. So the way I see it, the only impediment to Boston until they get to PHI in the 2011 World Series will be health.
The rest of 2010 could still be fun, but all the clubhouse drama has really sapped their confidence so far, and it remains to be seen whether they will hold up psychologically and salvage the 2010 season with at least a respectable playoff run (and maybe more)...or whether the 2011 prep starts sooner rather than later.