Math Distractions -- Change for a US Dollar Problem

How about a little math fun? Or, as they say in India, "maths". Once upon a time I used to teach this subject at different levels. Oh, almost forgot, NO GOOGLING.

First, the famous "Monty Hall" probability problem, with a little topical twist. Its pretty easy, but can be fairly counter-intuitive for some people.

So you're playing on a game show called "Let's Make A Deal" with Good Samaritan as Monty Hall. For those of you not familiar with the show the pertinent basic premise is that you get to win some sort of small gift which is behind a door you've chosen, but then the host offers you the chance to switch to whatever may be behind some other door, be it good or bad.

Anyway, you're on the show. GS tells you that Foxy, an Angelfuns model, is behind one of THREE doors, and she's ready and waiting for you if you pick the right door. That's right, gentlemen, that squirmin' sweet holiest of holies is hot, wet, and tight.

You pick DOOR #1.

Before you open it, GS opens DOOR #2 to show you she's not there.

Then he offers you the chance to switch to DOOR #3.

Should you switch? Why or why not? Or does it not matter?

RM

p.s. Here's Foxy:

Doesn't really matter, you have a 100% chance of getting some ass either way

I would stay with door 1, GS would point me in the right direction cause he knows this old bag of bones has a major thing for the beautiful Foxy.

and Bopper, how dare you soil a thread with foxy in it with a picture of your wife.

Man, I'm sure Foxy is behind door #1, I stay withdoor #1.

sir_darkstar wrote:
Are you kidding? GS of course wants to keep Foxy for himself, and so Sir Darkstar he would like to fool you. You have picked Door #1, but then he shows you that she's not behind Door #2 and gives you the chance to switch. You can either stick with Door #1 or switch to Door #3.

Bopper why do I have the feeling that you've been here before with another name?

Djnx why would you choose to stay with Door #1?

Anyone want to take a shot? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Remonstratin'Man

same chance she's behind either door. So need to shift the odds by smelling for her sweet pussy before selecting!

The answer is, of course, that you definitely switch doors. Every time. Stick with Door #1, and odds are you won't be feeling any Foxy.

Probability she's behind Door #1 = 1/3
Probability she's behind Door #2 or #3 = 2/3

So when GS shows you she's not behind Door #2 ...

Probability she's behind Door #1 = still 1/3
Probability she's behind Door #3 = 2/3.

Switch, bay-bee, switch.

Like it or not, I'll be back in a couple weeks with more.





RM

Probability starts at 1/3 for EACH door, when door #2 is revealed, that increases the odds for the remaining two doors to 1/2 or 50%. Switch at your own peril.

Bad math.

Also, what the hell are you talking about anyway.

Eh. If I wasn't going away for a while I'd let this slide and see if anyone else would like to speak up ... but ...

Bopper wrote:
Nope. The original probabilities of a door being correct do not change given the new information.

Let's say there are 10000 doors. She's behind one of them.

You pick Door #1.

GS opens up Doors #2-5632, and #s 5634-10000, and shows you she's not behind any of them. He offers you the chance to switch.

Do you keep Door #1, or switch to Door #5633?

Wikipedia has a fairly decent discussion on the problem. Course I modified the original with some hoochie, and maybe I ferked it up somehow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

RM

p.s. as far as "what the hell am I talking about" amigo I've seen several of your posts and you sound/sounded familiar. If I'm wrong, no worries and lighten up.

ramblin'man wrote:

Because my sixth sense is telling me that shes behind door #1.

Math Geek Man wrote:

OK, should have stayed awake in Stats class

However:

"Some of the controversy was because the Parade statement of the problem fails to fully specify the host's behavior and is thus technically ambiguous."

Djnx wrote:So your sixth sense thought it was:

instead of
?
I'm afraid your sense didn't make sense then.

My seventh sense (the one in my trousers) told me to check both doors.
Just to be sure.

I used to love maths... long time ago.

nope my sixth sense was something like this:



it's always about the entropy.

[quote=
it's always about the entropy.[/quote]

As we know entropy is always increasing so that must mean her tits get bigger while we discuss.

that wouldn't hurt.